1Assistant Professor of Sport Management, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2Associate Professor of sport management, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
3Associate Professor of sport management, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran
Introduction: increasing uncertainty and broad environmental changes of The sports organizations has led planning and management toward new approaches such as strategic foresight. Today's organizations, with the help of strategic foresight that has a horizon of 5 to 20 years, seek to create a strategy in a highly competitive environment.
The purpose of this paper was to identify the demographic key drivers of Sections quad of Iran's sport based on strategic foresight. In fact, this study seeks to determine which demographic factors can be effective in the face of alternative futures of Iran's sports by 2036.
Methods: This exploratory and mixed research aimed at setting demographic key drivers through a sample survey method. The statistical population were 25 faculties of sports management who at least holding an associate professor degree. They were selected based on simple random sampling method. In order to adjust the environmental factors, a 61-item questionnaire with convergent validity of (0.622) and composite reliability coefficient of (0.868) was designed., Friedman test, structural equation modeling (PLS) and the mean and standard deviation indices for analysis of questionnaires were used.
Results: According to the chi-Squared test (27.449) and the significance level (000.1) in the Friedman test Respectively, Legal, Demographical, Technology, Political ,Ethics, Sociological, Economic, Environmental, factors were confirmed as environmental factors affecting the future of Iran's sports. In addition, the results of the beta coefficient in Smart-Pls also showed that the elements of academic development expanding university disciplines in sport for all, development of land preparation system in professional sport, Per capita income in championship sport, development of land preparation system in educational sport, as demographic key drivers were identified.
Conclusion: Therefore, the research results can be effective as guides in anticipation of the future of sections quad of sport and lead us to concentrate on more effective and controllable demographic key drivers.